Firefox to overtake Internet Explorer by Dec-2007
Monday, April 24th, 2006I recently noticed that 25% of the users on The Humor Archives where using Firefox. I got to wondering how and when Firefox had picked up quite so many users so I grabed the raw figures from my log analyser packaged and using JFreeCharts I slung the below graph together.

and so it seems that not only has the percentage of Firefox users been increasing for the last 2.5 year but the rate of increase in the percentage of users has also been increasing. However I wanted to get a worse case senerio of when Firefox would overtake Microsoft Internet Explorer. To get the worst case I plotted a linear regression to forecast the growth. I then messed around with various other regressions to see what more optimistic regressions gave. The results are below.
| regression type | overtake date |
|---|---|
| linear | December 2007 |
| logarithmic | December 2007 |
| exponetial | July 2006 |
Now my University Mathematics lecturers would probably turn in their sandals at the mathematic rigour of my analysis as it is only based on one website with just 4,000,000 page views per month however it does give some indication of when Firefox will eventually take over as the dominant browser.